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Verified archiveSnapshot · June 6, 2026

NASCAR · Simulation archive

Race Desk

FireKeepers Casino 400 · Michigan International Speedway · June 7, 2026. A preserved model run for studying the field and the assumptions behind it.

Freshness boundaryThis event model has expired. Probabilities are historical simulation outputs, not current forecasts or prices.
Drivers modeled38
Simulations193
Model leaderDenny Hamlin

Historical field

Probability ranking

P1
Denny HamlinJoe Gibbs Racing · Toyota
31.7%win · avg finish 7.0
P2
Christopher BellJoe Gibbs Racing · Toyota
9.0%win · avg finish 9.9
P3
Chase BriscoeJoe Gibbs Racing · Toyota
7.8%win · avg finish 10.3
P4
Tyler Reddick23XI Racing · Toyota
7.8%win · avg finish 10.5
P5
Ty GibbsJoe Gibbs Racing · Toyota
6.4%win · avg finish 11.0
P6
Daniel SuárezSpire Motorsports · Chevrolet
4.2%win · avg finish 12.6
P7
Ryan BlaneyTeam Penske · Ford
3.4%win · avg finish 13.6
P8
Carson HocevarSpire Motorsports · Chevrolet
3.3%win · avg finish 13.7
P9
Erik JonesLegacy Motor Club · Toyota
2.3%win · avg finish 15.5
P10
Chase ElliottHendrick Motorsports · Chevrolet
2.1%win · avg finish 15.8
P11
Zane SmithFront Row Motorsports · Ford
1.8%win · avg finish 16.5
P12
Michael McDowellSpire Motorsports · Chevrolet
1.6%win · avg finish 16.9
P13
Ricky Stenhouse JrHYAK Motorsports · Chevrolet
1.6%win · avg finish 17.0
P14
William ByronHendrick Motorsports · Chevrolet
1.4%win · avg finish 18.3
P15
Kyle LarsonHendrick Motorsports · Chevrolet
1.3%win · avg finish 18.2
P16
Joey LoganoTeam Penske · Ford
1.2%win · avg finish 18.9
P17
Austin CindricTeam Penske · Ford
1.1%win · avg finish 19.5
P18
Shane Van GisbergenTrackhouse Racing · Chevrolet
1.1%win · avg finish 19.8
P19
Riley Herbst23XI Racing · Toyota
1.1%win · avg finish 19.5
P20
Bubba Wallace23XI Racing · Toyota
1.0%win · avg finish 19.6
P21
Todd GillilandFront Row Motorsports · Ford
0.9%win · avg finish 19.7
P22
Alex BowmanHendrick Motorsports · Chevrolet
0.9%win · avg finish 20.7
P23
Brad KeselowskiRFK Racing · Ford
0.9%win · avg finish 21.0
P24
Noah GragsonFront Row Motorsports · Ford
0.8%win · avg finish 20.5
P25
Chris BuescherRFK Racing · Ford
0.8%win · avg finish 20.9
P26
Austin DillonRichard Childress Racing · Chevrolet
0.8%win · avg finish 21.4
P27
Corey Heim23XI Racing · Toyota
0.7%win · avg finish 21.7
P28
John H. NemechekLegacy Motor Club · Toyota
0.7%win · avg finish 21.2
P29
Ty DillonKaulig Racing · Chevrolet
0.4%win · avg finish 24.4
P30
AJ AllmendingerKaulig Racing · Chevrolet
0.4%win · avg finish 24.8
P31
Ryan PreeceRFK Racing · Ford
0.3%win · avg finish 24.1
P32
Cole CusterHaas Factory Team · Chevrolet
0.3%win · avg finish 25.2
P33
Austin HillRichard Childress Racing · Chevrolet
0.3%win · avg finish 25.7
P34
Ross ChastainTrackhouse Racing · Chevrolet
0.2%win · avg finish 26.8
P35
Connor ZilischTrackhouse Racing · Chevrolet
0.2%win · avg finish 27.9
P36
Josh BerryWood Brothers Racing · Ford
0.1%win · avg finish 28.4
P37
Cody WareRick Ware Racing · Chevrolet
0.1%win · avg finish 30.7
P38
Chad FinchumGarage 66 · Ford
0.0%win · avg finish 31.9